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Bayesian Modelling - Final Report

Author: Monash University (Dr C. Pollino) and Water Science P/L (Dr B. Hart)

Date: December 2005

This report contains the result of a risk assessment, adopting Bayesian Network Modelling, undertaken to: assess the risks to the environmental Regime values in the Ok Tedi/ Fly River system from ARD production especially in the dredged material stockpiles at Bige; and test the effectiveness of various management options in mitigating these environmental risks. This risk assessment clearly demonstrated that without mitigation of tailings (subsequently addressed via the Mine Waste Tailings Project) ARD would result in unacceptable changes to the Regime values.